. . . Uh . . . certainly NOT flowers!

After a disastrous March/April campaign, I was hoping to be able to complete the catchy title of this BULLog with a more optimistic object reference.  Unfortunately, I am compelled to do otherwise.  Since I am currently attending scientific meeting in, data and facts are the emphasis.  Since I am in this frame of mind, I see no reason to change . . . especially when I consider letting emotions get the better of me, as opposed to a logical and calculated diatribe.

March was a half-month, so I am excluding those matches from my analysis.  Thus, my analysis is not per-protocol, but employs an intent-to-beat methodology.  I start with April.  According to the published NYRB season schedule, of the 5 MLS league games played, the Red Bulls earned 4 points for a 0.8 point/league match performance index, or “MPI.”  Compare this with the reigning MLS Cup Champs, Columbus Crew, who earned just 2 points in 4 league matches for a 0.5 MPI, according to their published schedule.  The sixth match  for the Red Bulls was a US Open Cup qualifier vs San Jose, in which the Red Bulls earned the right to continue on in the US Open Cup bracket.  OK, so April ended on a positive note, despite a weak match record.  Although, this would have to be considered an outlier outcome for this particular match, when you compare it to the perfmormance trend for April.

Now, also in May, the Red Bulls played 5 league matches, in which they earned just 3 points for a 0.6 index (a 25% MPI decline from the previous month).  To top it off, in a sixth match in May, DCU once again spanked us, and sends us reeling out of the US Open Cup bracket.  Comparatively, the Columbus Crew, who by the way has yet to play its first US Open Cup match, also played 5 league matches, but has improved their index to 1.8 (a 260% MPI improvement from the previous month).

Furthermore, if we were a single table (like the English Premiership), we would be in the relegation zone as third from the bottom of the MLS table.  Although we are not a single-table league, “3rd from the bottom” sounds better than “THE bottom” of the East Conference when conversing about the Red Bulls.  -sigh-  I digress . . .

So, after my careful, rigorous analysis of the data, controlling for confounding variables and covariates, and adjusting the power analysis to detect even a smidgin of improvement, I must conclude that we are statistically insignificant at the moment (two-tailed t-statistic: P<0.05).  However, when you throw in the covariate of fan devotion, the sensitivity analysis reveals that the die-hard Red Bull fans are heartbroken, but not entirely discouraged.  Thus, further longitudinal match outcome data (i.e., June, July, August . . .) are necessary for calculating a more predictive MPI and optimizing the predictability of this 2009 MLS season.

I WANT AN MLS POST-SEASON!  (This is NOT scientific!)

YIRB,

CT

 PS

Chief Toro has traveled a cumulative total of 7,099 miles for 3 Red Bull home matches for a miles/game index of 2366.33.  I hope to improve this, at least!  Chief Toro resides in Virginia Beach, VA.